Sunday, 22 February 2009

The Dow has turned really bearish

This monthly chart follows the Dow from it's bull market beginning in 1982 to the present. Richard Russel says :Turning to the 50% Principle, the halfway level of the entire bull market of 1982 to 2007 is 7470. Yesterday the Dow closed at 7466, 4 points below the halfway level. On this basis, the 50% Principle has turned bearish. According to the 50% Principle, if the Dow closes below the halfway level of the preceding major advance, the Dow can decline towards and even test the level from which the advance started. To do that, the Dow would ultimately have to test the area from which the bull market started -- that area was 776.92.
Could that happen? I have no idea, but I'm merely relating the possibilities under the 50% Principle -- a study I learned from the great Dow Theorist, E. George Schaefer. But wouldn't a return to the Dow 776 area be catastrophic? I'm sure it would be, but a year ago who would have thought the Dow in February 2009 would be at 7468? The market is a law unto itself, and the market doesn't care about human triumphs or human misery. I'm merely repeating stock market mechanics as I know them. One of the mechanics is the 50% Principle. The horizontal red line identified the halfway level of the great bull market. As I write, the Dow is below the 7470, the 50% level. Not a pretty picture, but it's reality.

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